How to read a verdict on Markt Cycles, and what stands behind it. Edited by Market Cycles Editorial.
A verdict is the direction and strength for one market condition and one asset, for example Gold in Recession. The site has 10 conditions (Expansion, Recovery, Geopolitical Crisis, Wartime, High Inflation, Rate Hike Cycle, Recession, Stagflation, Deflation and Depression) and 10 assets: 8 asset classes and 2 small-business types. That makes 100 verdicts. Each one is stored once, and the home table, the condition pages and the asset pages all read the direction, strength and label from that single record, so the same verdict is shown the same way everywhere.
A verdict describes what has tended to happen. It is not a forecast, and it is not advice.
Direction is positive, negative, mixed or neutral, and sets the colour. Strength is how pronounced the effect has been, shown as 1, 2 or 3 bars:
| Bars | Strength | Positive / negative label |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mild effect | Mild Positive / Mild Negative |
| 2 | Clear effect | Positive / Negative |
| 3 | Dominant effect | Strong Positive / Strong Negative |
A mixed verdict means episodes disagree or the answer depends on circumstances such as location or sector. A neutral verdict means little consistent effect. Both still carry bars for how pronounced that pattern is. The label is worked out from direction and strength rather than written by hand, so the bars, the colour and the words agree. The short explanation beside each verdict is written by hand.
Some verdicts rest on many episodes and some on very few. Each assessed verdict gets one of four levels from a fixed rule, and its label shows beside the verdict with the number of episodes behind it. Click a label to jump to that verdict's row in the evidence ledger below. Evidence level is separate from direction: a verdict can be Mixed in direction and still have conflicting evidence, or be clearly positive on limited evidence.
If the only episode available contradicts a verdict, the verdict is changed rather than labelled. Every verdict has been assessed against the episodes below. Untested is not a mild label. It means we found no usable data, so the verdict rests on reasoning about similar situations, and it should be read that way. Where the data is a proxy (the two small-business types) or an aggregator, the audit notes say so.
For each episode we record whether the asset rose, fell, stayed roughly flat or swung both ways, measured over the episode's dates as a real (inflation-adjusted) change, including income where a total-return series exists. What counts as a rise or a fall depends on how much the asset usually moves:
| Asset | Episodes up to 12 months (cumulative) | Longer episodes (per year) |
|---|---|---|
| Cash (Treasury bills) | +/- 1% | +/- 1% |
| Bonds | +/- 3% | +/- 2% |
| Every other asset | +/- 5% | +/- 3% |
Anything between the two thresholds is flat. An asset swung both ways if it rose and fell by 10% or more (5% for cash and bonds) inside the window and ended near where it began. The two small-business types have no price, so they are judged on a stated proxy, such as real retail and food-service sales or small-firm activity; the audit notes say which proxy was used. Where no usable data exists, the answer is no data, and that is how an Untested label arises.
Every episode is filed under one market condition and cannot be used for another: the 2022 selloff is a rate-hike and high-inflation episode, not a recession, and 2020 is not a geopolitical event. Recessions and other market conditions are usually identified only after the fact. The National Bureau of Economic Research announces recession dates months later, so a verdict tells you what tended to follow a market condition, not how to recognise one in real time. The register is below; the dating source for each episode is linked.
| Episode | Measured from | to | Dated by |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1982-90 expansion | 1982-11 | 1990-07 | NBER, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions |
| 1991-2001 expansion | 1991-03 | 2001-03 | NBER, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions |
| 2001-07 expansion | 2001-11 | 2007-12 | NBER, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions |
| 2009-20 expansion | 2009-06 | 2020-02 | NBER, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions |
| Episode | Measured from | to | Dated by |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1975-76 recovery | 1975-03 | 1976-03 | NBER, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions |
| 1982-83 recovery | 1982-11 | 1983-11 | NBER, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions |
| 1991-92 recovery | 1991-03 | 1992-03 | NBER, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions |
| 2001-02 recovery | 2001-11 | 2002-11 | NBER, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions |
| 2009-10 recovery | 2009-06 | 2010-06 | NBER, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions |
| 2020-21 recovery | 2020-04 | 2021-04 | NBER, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions |
| Episode | Measured from | to | Dated by |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis | 1962-09 | 1963-04 | US State Department, Office of the Historian, Cuban Missile Crisis |
| 1990-91 Gulf crisis | 1990-07 | 1991-03 | US State Department, Office of the Historian, The Gulf War |
| 2001 September 11 attacks | 2001-08 | 2002-03 | Wikipedia, September 11 attacks |
| 2014 annexation of Crimea | 2014-01 | 2014-09 | Wikipedia, Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation |
| 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine (shock) | 2022-01 | 2022-09 | Wikipedia, Russian invasion of Ukraine |
| Episode | Measured from | to | Dated by |
|---|---|---|---|
| World War II | 1939-09 | 1945-08 | Wikipedia, World War II |
| Korean War | 1950-06 | 1953-07 | Wikipedia, Korean War |
| Vietnam War (US combat years) | 1965-03 | 1973-01 | Wikipedia, Vietnam War |
| Episode | Measured from | to | Dated by |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-47 post-war inflation | 1946-01 | 1947-12 | BLS, Historical CPI-U |
| 1966-69 rising inflation | 1966-01 | 1969-12 | BLS, Historical CPI-U |
| 2021-23 inflation surge | 2021-03 | 2023-06 | BLS, Historical CPI-U |
| Episode | Measured from | to | Dated by |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1994-95 hiking cycle | 1994-02 | 1995-02 | Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Funds Effective Rate |
| 1999-2000 hiking cycle | 1999-06 | 2000-05 | Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Funds Effective Rate |
| 2004-06 hiking cycle | 2004-06 | 2006-06 | Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Funds Effective Rate |
| 2015-18 hiking cycle | 2015-12 | 2018-12 | Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Funds Effective Rate |
| 2022-23 hiking cycle | 2022-03 | 2023-07 | Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Funds Effective Rate |
| Episode | Measured from | to | Dated by |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1969-70 recession | 1969-12 | 1970-11 | NBER, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions |
| 1981-82 recession | 1981-07 | 1982-11 | NBER, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions |
| 1990-91 recession | 1990-07 | 1991-03 | NBER, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions |
| 2001 recession | 2001-03 | 2001-11 | NBER, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions |
| 2007-09 recession | 2007-12 | 2009-06 | NBER, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions |
| 2020 recession | 2020-02 | 2020-04 | NBER, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions |
| Episode | Measured from | to | Dated by |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1973-75 stagflation | 1973-11 | 1975-03 | Federal Reserve History, The Great Inflation |
| 1979-80 stagflation | 1979-01 | 1980-07 | Federal Reserve History, The Great Inflation |
| Episode | Measured from | to | Dated by |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1930-33 US deflation | 1930-01 | 1933-03 | BLS, Historical CPI-U |
| 1998-2012 Japanese deflation | 1998-01 | 2012-12 | Bank of Japan, speech 27 May 2024 |
| Episode | Measured from | to | Dated by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Great Depression, 1929-33 | 1929-08 | 1933-03 | Federal Reserve History, The Great Depression |
A verdict is changed when evidence from a source we have read supports the change. The reason is kept in our internal audit notes, and the text on the page is then reviewed so it agrees with the new verdict. The last reviewed date on an article is the date of its most recent review against sources, not of a typo fix.
If you think a figure or a verdict is wrong, please tell us. We review reports and correct errors we can confirm.
Every verdict with its evidence level, the episodes behind it and the episodes that went against it. It is generated from the same data as the home table, so the two cannot disagree. A dash means no episode is recorded for that verdict.
| Asset | Verdict | Evidence | What happened in each episode | Against the verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equities | ▲ Strong Positive | Strong evidence |
| None found |
| Bonds | ▲ Mild Positive | Strong evidence |
| None found |
| Real Estate | ▲ Strong Positive | Limited evidence |
| None found |
| Gold | ⇄ Mixed | Conflicting evidence |
| Not applicable: a Mixed verdict expects episodes to differ |
| Oil & Energy | ⇄ Mixed | Conflicting evidence |
| Not applicable: a Mixed verdict expects episodes to differ |
| Agriculture | → Neutral | Conflicting evidence |
| 2001-07 expansion |
| Crypto | ▲ Strong Positive | Limited evidence |
| None found |
| Cash | ▼ Mild Negative | Conflicting evidence |
| 1982-90 expansion, 1991-2001 expansion |
| Small Physical Biz | ▲ Strong Positive | Limited evidence |
| None found |
| Small Digital Biz | ▲ Strong Positive | Limited evidence |
| None found |
| Asset | Verdict | Evidence | What happened in each episode | Against the verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equities | ▲ Strong Positive | Conflicting evidence |
| 2001-02 recovery |
| Bonds | ⇄ Mixed | Conflicting evidence |
| Not applicable: a Mixed verdict expects episodes to differ |
| Real Estate | ▲ Positive | Limited evidence |
| None found |
| Gold | ⇄ Mixed | Conflicting evidence |
| Not applicable: a Mixed verdict expects episodes to differ |
| Oil & Energy | ▲ Positive | Conflicting evidence |
| 1982-83 recovery, 1991-92 recovery |
| Agriculture | → Neutral | Conflicting evidence |
| 1982-83 recovery, 2001-02 recovery, 2020-21 recovery |
| Crypto | ▲ Positive | Limited evidence |
| None found |
| Cash | ▼ Mild Negative | Conflicting evidence |
| 1982-83 recovery, 1991-92 recovery |
| Small Physical Biz | ▲ Positive | Limited evidence |
| None found |
| Small Digital Biz | ▲ Strong Positive | Strong evidence |
| None found |
| Asset | Verdict | Evidence | What happened in each episode | Against the verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equities | ▼ Negative | Conflicting evidence |
| 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, 2014 annexation of Crimea |
| Bonds | ▲ Positive | Conflicting evidence |
| 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine (shock) |
| Real Estate | ⇄ Mixed | Strong evidence |
| Not applicable: a Mixed verdict expects episodes to differ |
| Gold | ▲ Positive | Conflicting evidence |
| 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine (shock) |
| Oil & Energy | ▲ Strong Positive | Conflicting evidence |
| 2001 September 11 attacks |
| Agriculture | ⇄ Mixed | Conflicting evidence |
| Not applicable: a Mixed verdict expects episodes to differ |
| Crypto | ⇄ Mixed | Limited evidence |
| Not applicable: a Mixed verdict expects episodes to differ |
| Cash | ▲ Positive | Conflicting evidence |
| 2014 annexation of Crimea, 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine (shock) |
| Small Physical Biz | ▼ Negative | Limited evidence |
| None found |
| Small Digital Biz | ▲ Positive | Strong evidence |
| None found |
| Asset | Verdict | Evidence | What happened in each episode | Against the verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equities | ⇄ Mixed | Limited evidence |
| Not applicable: a Mixed verdict expects episodes to differ |
| Bonds | ▼ Negative | Limited evidence |
| None found |
| Real Estate | ⇄ Mixed | Strong evidence |
| Not applicable: a Mixed verdict expects episodes to differ |
| Gold | ▲ Strong Positive | Untested | — | — |
| Oil & Energy | ▲ Strong Positive | Limited evidence |
| None found |
| Agriculture | ▲ Positive | Limited evidence |
| None found |
| Crypto | ⇄ Mixed | Untested | — | — |
| Cash | ▼ Negative | Conflicting evidence |
| Vietnam War (US combat years) |
| Small Physical Biz | ⇄ Mixed | Limited evidence |
| Not applicable: a Mixed verdict expects episodes to differ |
| Small Digital Biz | ▲ Positive | Untested | — | — |
| Asset | Verdict | Evidence | What happened in each episode | Against the verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equities | ⇄ Mixed | Strong evidence |
| Not applicable: a Mixed verdict expects episodes to differ |
| Bonds | ▼ Strong Negative | Strong evidence |
| None found |
| Real Estate | ▲ Positive | Limited evidence |
| None found |
| Gold | ▲ Positive | Limited evidence |
| None found |
| Oil & Energy | ▲ Strong Positive | Limited evidence |
| None found |
| Agriculture | ▲ Positive | Limited evidence |
| None found |
| Crypto | ⇄ Mixed | Limited evidence |
| Not applicable: a Mixed verdict expects episodes to differ |
| Cash | ▼ Negative | Conflicting evidence |
| 1966-69 rising inflation |
| Small Physical Biz | ▼ Strong Negative | Conflicting evidence |
| 1946-47 post-war inflation, 1966-69 rising inflation |
| Small Digital Biz | ⇄ Mixed | Limited evidence |
| Not applicable: a Mixed verdict expects episodes to differ |
| Asset | Verdict | Evidence | What happened in each episode | Against the verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equities | ⇄ Mixed | Limited evidence |
| Not applicable: a Mixed verdict expects episodes to differ |
| Bonds | ▼ Strong Negative | Limited evidence |
| None found |
| Real Estate | ▼ Negative | Conflicting evidence |
| 2004-06 hiking cycle, 2015-18 hiking cycle |
| Gold | ⇄ Mixed | Conflicting evidence |
| Not applicable: a Mixed verdict expects episodes to differ |
| Oil & Energy | ⇄ Mixed | Conflicting evidence |
| Not applicable: a Mixed verdict expects episodes to differ |
| Agriculture | → Neutral | Conflicting evidence |
| 2022-23 hiking cycle |
| Crypto | ▼ Strong Negative | Conflicting evidence |
| 2015-18 hiking cycle |
| Cash | ▲ Positive | Conflicting evidence |
| 2022-23 hiking cycle |
| Small Physical Biz | ▼ Negative | Conflicting evidence |
| 2004-06 hiking cycle |
| Small Digital Biz | ⇄ Mixed | Limited evidence |
| Not applicable: a Mixed verdict expects episodes to differ |
| Asset | Verdict | Evidence | What happened in each episode | Against the verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equities | ▼ Strong Negative | Conflicting evidence |
| 1981-82 recession |
| Bonds | ▲ Positive | Strong evidence |
| None found |
| Real Estate | ▼ Negative | Limited evidence |
| None found |
| Gold | ▲ Positive | Conflicting evidence |
| 1981-82 recession |
| Oil & Energy | ▼ Negative | Strong evidence |
| None found |
| Agriculture | ⇄ Mixed | Strong evidence |
| Not applicable: a Mixed verdict expects episodes to differ |
| Crypto | ⇄ Mixed | Limited evidence |
| Not applicable: a Mixed verdict expects episodes to differ |
| Cash | ▲ Strong Positive | Strong evidence |
| None found |
| Small Physical Biz | ▼ Strong Negative | Limited evidence |
| None found |
| Small Digital Biz | ⇄ Mixed | Limited evidence |
| Not applicable: a Mixed verdict expects episodes to differ |
| Asset | Verdict | Evidence | What happened in each episode | Against the verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equities | ▼ Strong Negative | Conflicting evidence |
| 1979-80 stagflation |
| Bonds | ▼ Strong Negative | Limited evidence |
| None found |
| Real Estate | ⇄ Mixed | Limited evidence |
| Not applicable: a Mixed verdict expects episodes to differ |
| Gold | ▲ Strong Positive | Limited evidence |
| None found |
| Oil & Energy | ▲ Positive | Limited evidence |
| None found |
| Agriculture | ⇄ Mixed | Limited evidence |
| Not applicable: a Mixed verdict expects episodes to differ |
| Crypto | ▼ Negative | Untested | — | — |
| Cash | ⇄ Mixed | Limited evidence |
| Not applicable: a Mixed verdict expects episodes to differ |
| Small Physical Biz | ▼ Negative | Limited evidence |
| None found |
| Small Digital Biz | ▼ Negative | Untested | — | — |
| Asset | Verdict | Evidence | What happened in each episode | Against the verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equities | ▼ Negative | Limited evidence |
| None found |
| Bonds | ▲ Strong Positive | Limited evidence |
| None found |
| Real Estate | ▼ Strong Negative | Limited evidence |
| None found |
| Gold | ⇄ Mixed | Limited evidence |
| Not applicable: a Mixed verdict expects episodes to differ |
| Oil & Energy | ▼ Strong Negative | Limited evidence |
| None found |
| Agriculture | ▼ Negative | Limited evidence |
| None found |
| Crypto | ▼ Strong Negative | Untested | — | — |
| Cash | ▲ Strong Positive | Limited evidence |
| None found |
| Small Physical Biz | ▼ Negative | Untested | — | — |
| Small Digital Biz | ⇄ Mixed | Untested | — | — |
| Asset | Verdict | Evidence | What happened in each episode | Against the verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equities | ▼ Strong Negative | Limited evidence |
| None found |
| Bonds | ⇄ Mixed | Limited evidence |
| Not applicable: a Mixed verdict expects episodes to differ |
| Real Estate | ▼ Strong Negative | Limited evidence |
| None found |
| Gold | ▲ Strong Positive | Untested | — | — |
| Oil & Energy | ▼ Strong Negative | Limited evidence |
| None found |
| Agriculture | ▼ Negative | Limited evidence |
| None found |
| Crypto | ▼ Strong Negative | Untested | — | — |
| Cash | ▲ Strong Positive | Limited evidence |
| None found |
| Small Physical Biz | ▼ Strong Negative | Untested | — | — |
| Small Digital Biz | ▼ Negative | Untested | — | — |